Solanke vs Richarlison: The Numbers Behind Who Should Lead The Line

Tottenham have taken the transfer market by storm, snapping up some top Premier League experience on freebies, purchasing two absolute elite ball-playing defenders, and breaking their transfer record twice within a week, bagging a beautiful pair of ballers to drop in the pivot. We've gone from getting bantered by Lincoln to stealing some of the best talents in the league, with a near-total revamp of the defence and midfield. But when it comes to the front line, it's feeling very stale and uninspiring. And with the transfer window ominously closing in on us, we are left to debate who should lead the line: Solanke or Richarlison.

While this may bring a cruel sense of déjà vu, we are heading into a new season with a new brand of football. That means new requirements, new demands, and new opportunities for our forwards. So before we groan and give up on what we have, let's take a look at the job spec and try to figure out who in our current squad best fits the bill.

What Makes a De Zerbi Number 9

Let's be honest, De Zerbi is an absolute master baiter, a total tease. He loves to bait the press and manipulate opponents rather than sit back or dominate possession for the sake of it. And he runs a tight ship; no one gets a free pass, it's all hands on deck, from the keeper to the number nine — this is a system which only works if everyone's all in.

De Zerbi's teams build from a 3-2-5 formation and prey on momentary bad positioning, using patient circulation and ball baiting to drag the opposition out of shape and hit the space the moment it's vacated. That means the striker isn't standing on the shoulder of the last defender waiting for a through ball. A De Zerbi nine is a connector as much as a finisher, someone comfortable dropping into pockets, taking the ball under pressure with his back to goal, often playing an active role in link-up and ball progression, as well as needing to finish when the chance arrives.

Previous De Zerbi Strikers

When looking back at De Zerbi strikers, there's an important caveat to add. De Zerbi has never been in a position to go out and get the best fit available. With all due respect to his previous clubs, he has never dined at the top table, often forced to work on a budget or with an existing squad. So when analysing De Zerbi players, we need to compare their state pre and post-DZB, to see which stats leap out from the page.

Danny Welbeck is a good example. A De Zerbi regular during his time at Brighton and a player who was at his peak before, during, and after their time together, making comparisons useful. Looking over his stats, a few things clearly stand out: possession and passing are paramount for a number 9 under De Zerbi.

Danny Welbeck — Before, During, and After De Zerbi (Per 90)

Under De Zerbi, Welbeck saw a significant increase in the amount of time he spent on the ball during progressive phases, with a near 25% increase in touches and pass attempts, as well as a notable increase in the quality of touches, with a pass accuracy breaking past 83% for the first time in his career. A passing accuracy over 80%, for a nine, is elite and rare.

While Welbeck's goals per game ratio was modest, this further highlights how his role in the team carried much more dynamic responsibilities. During this season, Welbeck was sharing the role with João Pedro, who was having his breakout year, and Evan Ferguson, who was seeing more minutes (although a significant amount came from off the bench).

Welbeck vs João Pedro vs Evan Ferguson — 23/24, All Under De Zerbi (Per 90)

Comparing the three over the season, the stats point to the same demands: a need to be involved in possession and build-up, and a demand for that possession to be of quality, with all three over that magic 80% for passing accuracy.

Richarlison vs Solanke vs Welbeck

It would be unfair to lay out Richarlison's or Solanke's 25/26 stats and put them up against Welbeck's second season under De Zerbi. Last season saw the club in an ugly downward spiral fuelled by equally ugly stylings of Frank Ball. Neither player had a good run of games, both struggling with injuries. I've tried to find the season where each player had a good run of games and form, while also playing in a progressive, possession-happy system. This would be Richarlison's first season under Ange, and Solanke's final season at Bournemouth, under Araola.

Welbeck's DZ Peak vs Richarlison vs Solanke (Per 90, Best Available Seasons)

Despite hand-picking the season to favour each player, the numbers aren't comforting.

Passes attempted: Richarlison runs Welbeck close with pass attempts, whereas Solanke is clearly way out of the desired range. Richarlison also has a comparable 44.3 touches per 90, but only half of these were deemed passes, the rest being duels, lost possession, and a below-average number of shots.

Taking a step back and looking at the eye test, Richarlison is a closer fit style-wise in terms of being a willing runner, duels, and dropping into pockets. On the other hand, despite a concerning strike rate for Spurs, Solanke is more like Evan Ferguson, and has a better instinct in front of goal and a scoring record that has flirted with breaking the 20+ barrier, albeit in a different colour shirt.

One thing also worth noting: the De Zerbi bait only works if the opposition is hungry enough for the ball to go get it, and from the Poch years we still have nightmares of trying to beat a Swansea low block. The more success and reputation this team gains, the more often we'll need a solid plan B, which is likely going to require a finisher with strong aerial presence.

The Verdict

While Richarlison's stats are closer to what De Zerbi will be looking for, they are still way off where they need to be, in terms of possession and progression. Richarlison is the wrong side of his peak, showing an unignorable decline in athleticism and a collection of niggle injuries which refuse to allow any momentum. It would be hard to imagine him seeing a renaissance of form under the new project, and if a decent bid comes in, it would be a no-brainer to part ways.

Equally, Solanke isn't in the De Zerbi mould, is only a year younger, and since joining the club he has been pestered by injuries, including a concerning ankle injury which he struggled to recover from. While a fit and in-form Solanke would promise goals in any system, he isn't a player De Zerbi should be building around.

So who should start the line for Tottenham? If we were to start the season tomorrow, then it would have to be Richarlison, purely due to current fitness and form. If both players were fully fit and replicating their greatest form, then my answer for who should lead a De Zerbi front line would be neither. These aren't the forwards you're looking for.

In fairness, both make a case for being a solid back-up/plan B; Richarlison's appetite, unpredictability, and shameless shithousery can shake up an opposition getting comfortable. And Solanke's athleticism, hard work, and ability in the six-yard box make him a precious plan B against a stubborn low block.

The real solution isn't at the club yet. It has to be an experienced 9/10 hybrid. Someone who can score goals as well as drop back and play comfortably in midfield or out wide. Someone who isn't just good on the ball, but relishes tight spaces and licks their lips when impatient opponents rush in. The answer isn't an Osimhen; it's a Gakpo or a Rashford. Even better than that, recent links to Georges Mikautadze are exciting: a player with outstanding close control, lethal finishing with both feet, and a love of receiving the ball in tight spaces. Better than that? Harry Kane. Harry Edward Kane. Bring him home.