Tottenham’s Fine Margins Are Becoming a Problem

Tottenham’s reliance on set-pieces last season was significant. According to Opta, 39.6% of Spurs’ Premier League goals and 36.9% of their expected goals came from set-pieces, both the highest proportions in the division. João Palhinha scored five league goals, while Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven scored four each.

The departures of Palhinha and Romero have removed nine league goals from a team that scored only 48 times last season, their lowest Premier League total since 2008/09. Their physical presence was also important at both ends of the pitch.

🚨Already a Third of the Way There

That has become an immediate concern. Three of Tottenham’s five goals conceded in their opening two league matches have originated from non-penalty set-piece situations, including throw-ins. Spurs conceded only nine such goals across all 38 Premier League matches last season, meaning they have already conceded a third of last season’s total after two games.

Against Brentford, Tottenham won only 13 of 36 aerial duels, a 36% success rate, with Jan Paul van Hecke losing all four of his. Roberto De Zerbi admitted afterwards that Spurs had lost “too many duels”. Newcastle then scored from a corner after Nick Woltemade won the first contact at the back post for Yoane Wissa.

📈The Timing Could Not Be Worse

The timing is significant. 27.4% of Premier League goals in 2025/26 came from non-penalty set-pieces, up from 20.6% the previous season, while corners accounted for a record 18% of all goals. Long throws into the opposition box also increased from 1.52 per game in 2024/25 to 3.92 last season.

📏Aerial Ability, Not Height Alone

Tottenham require aerial ability rather than height alone. Despite standing 6ft 4in, Van de Ven won only 46.6% of his aerial duels last season, placing him in the 37th percentile among Premier League centre-backs. Kevin Danso averaged 4.7 aerial duels won per 90, the sixth-highest figure of any Premier League player with at least 900 minutes.

Danso has now joined Sunderland, increasing the importance of 6ft 5in Tosin Adarabioyo’s arrival. Tosin adds size, Premier League experience and another option for defending crosses and first contacts in a squad that has lost Danso, Romero and Palhinha.

⚽The Attack Has to Produce More From Open Play

There is a similar issue at the other end. Tottenham cannot assume set-pieces will continue providing almost 40% of their league goals, so the rebuilt attack needs to produce considerably more from open play.

The new personnel should change how Tottenham reach the penalty area. Mathys Tel averaged 4.4 opposition-box touches per 90 last season and Kolo Muani 4.3. Sávio recorded 8.1, almost double either player’s rate.

There is also a clear difference in their ability to beat opponents. Mohammed Kudus averaged 4.24 completed take-ons per 90 during his first Premier League season with West Ham, while Sávio averaged 2.90 for Girona in 2023/24. Both led their respective divisions for total completed take-ons that season.

Mudryk’s last substantial Premier League season produced 2.11 completed take-ons, 1.8 chances created and 5.0 opposition-box touches per 90. His take-on rate was below Tel’s 2.47 last season but comfortably above Kolo Muani’s 1.41.

The biggest improvements come from Kudus and Sávio. Kudus’ rate was 72% higher than Tel’s and more than three times Kolo Muani’s, while Sávio completed 17% more take-ons per 90 than Tel and more than twice as many as Kolo Muani.

Sávio, Mudryk and Kudus give Spurs more players capable of carrying possession into the penalty area and attacking defenders one-versus-one. That is particularly relevant given Tottenham’s penalty drought.

⏳The Penalty Drought

Spurs have not been awarded a Premier League penalty since Dominic Solanke scored against Brighton on 25 May 2025. Their last away league penalty was Harry Kane’s at Aston Villa on 13 May 2023.

At the time, Ipswich Town were a League One club. Since then, Ipswich have been promoted to the Championship, promoted to the Premier League, relegated and promoted to the Premier League again, all while Tottenham are still awaiting another away league penalty.

There is variance in penalty awards, but attacking profile matters. More carries and one-versus-one situations inside the box should create more opportunities for defenders to make mistimed challenges.

⚖️The Balance Problem

The wider issue for De Zerbi is balance. Spurs have lost several of the players behind a side that generated 39.6% of its goals from set-pieces, while their early defensive numbers suggest the same situations could become more problematic at the other end.

The importance of those margins was demonstrated by Arsenal last season. The champions scored 29 goals from set-piece situations, including a Premier League-record 19 from corners, and recorded a league-best +14.1 set-piece xG differential.

Tottenham have started this season with zero points, zero goals scored and five conceded, with three of those five originating from non-penalty set-piece situations. Last season it took Spurs 38 matches to concede nine from those situations. This season they are already a third of the way there after two.

That is why the fine margins matter. Winning first contacts, defending second balls, winning penalties and producing from set-pieces can decide tight matches. Arsenal showed how large that advantage can become across 38 games. Through Tottenham’s opening two matches, too many of those margins have gone against them.